And we're on to the next conference: the AFC South. To be honest I don't follow any of the teams in this conference, so I'm a bit clueless about the results here.
This is the first conference where we see a flip between teams, this time the 3rd and 4th place teams in the conference. Unfortunately this flip is between two teams who fared horribly last year, and still won't be playoff contenders.
The models saw, however, that the titans played significantly better than their two wins would indicate, so they are awarded a six win projection for next year. The Jaguars, performed better than their three wins, but not as "better to record" as the Titans project 4 win gain.
The top of the division will be dominated by the same two teams. The Texans may outperform the forecast especially if Arian Foster can stay healthy (ok, ok, I know ONE thing about this division).