Thursday, September 24, 2015

2015 NFL Picks: Week 3

My predictions got killed this week.  Luckily the pundits suffered the same fate.  It was a weird week in the NFL, that saw quite a few upsets, and just weird games.  It also saw some more significant injuries, including my favorite fantasy football quarterback, Tony Romo going down.

LAST WEEK PERFORMANCE

Last week was bad, really bad.  I went 7-9, which historically, the model has only performed that poorly twice in 7 years of data it was trained on.  Luckily though, the pundits picked the same way that I did in a few of the major upsets, and my 7-9 was actually above the pundit average at nflpickwatch.com

That means that while I am now only 17-15 on the season, I actually moved up in the pundit ratings.  Instead of 57 pundits out of 135 ahead of me, my model is now only behind 50 pundits.  #winning  To further make my point, my model developed in May, is outperforming the picks of several NFL greats who are now pundits (looking at you, Boomer Esiason and Tony Gonzales) who have all the knowledge of all the personnel moves and performance changes that have occurred since May. Again, #winning.

Anyways,  here's what the pundit results look like after two weeks.




THIS WEEK PREDICTIONS

I promised an in-season model this week, but I got a little off-topic with a former hedge-fund manager, so maybe next week.  Here are our picks from our pre-season model:


The Patriots are hugely favored, as well as the 0-2 Seahawks.  As for my Chiefs?  Probably going to lose at Green Bay, even with Jordy Nelson out.  

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