ACTUAL APPROVAL RATE?Sometime later a twitter user asked me, if not 18%, what do I really think Brownback's approval rating might be. I looked again at the skews, did some quick math, adjusting for prior demographic distributions and likely errors and came up with a range. This was me really just trying to back into a number from bad polling data. Here's my response on twitter:
WARNING: "I TOLD YOU SO" coming.@LemonMeringue19 based on the questions as it was asked by FHSU (not normal approval rate question). 22-30%, actual approval rate 24-32%.— LB (@LeviABx) November 4, 2015
This week another survey was published that reviews the approval rate of all governors in the US. You can find that study here. I haven't fully vetted the methodology, but the methodology indicates they at least tried to deal with demographic issues.
What did that study tell us?
Brownback's approval rate is 26%. LOOK THAT'S IN MY RANGE!But that dataset also provides information on other governor approval ratings, what can those tell us?
COMPARISON TO OTHER GOVERNORS
While I was correct that Brownback's likely approval rate is above 18%, his approval rate is still dismal compared to other governors. In fact Brownback is 9 percentage points below any other governor, and a huge outlier. I could bore you with p-values and z-scores (-2.8) and other statistical nerdery, but two charts can easily describe how bad his approval rate is. (Brownback in red)
- Brownback's approval rate is likely above 18%, closer to 26% (read: I was right).
- Brownback has the lowest approval rate among US governors.
- Brownback's approval rating is an extreme low outlier.