Here is a current status of delegate count as it sits now:
Clinton still has a significant lead, and Bernie needs to win 56.5% of remaining delegates to win the "pledged delegate" nomination. Due to the prior mentioned polling shifts, this means Bernie needs to create a logit shift of .53, or beat polls by an average of 13% in order to win. This may seem like a huge number, but it's actually a moderate improvement over our past projects.
Here's a look at our normal breakdown. By the way, in order to stay "on pace" Bernie needs to win 64% of the vote tomorrow night in Wisconsin (methodology found here).
Now a quick rundown of his chances:
There are a couple of things that are currently in Bernie's Favor:
- His polling numbers seem to be improving, so he still has a bit of momentum.
- The most important states with remaining primaries, notably California and New Jersey have fairly sparse polling so far, so there may be more Bernie-favorable variance in those polls.
A few unfavorable points about Bernie's current position:
- He's still far behind, and has to massively out-perform polls in order to win.
- Though there is some history of Bernie over-performing, most of those over-performances (save for Michigan) have occurred in caucus states where things behave differently. Now for a couple of charts to demonstrate this. First, a chart depicting polling of delegates received for Bernie, demonstrating Bernie's over-performance over polling in caucuses (straight line represents polling 1:1 with performance):
- So there's a history of Bernie over-performing, but we know that occurs more heavily in Caucus states. The real problem for Bernie: less than 10% of remaining delegates will be awarded through a caucus rather than a primary.
Although Bernie has seen a polling bump recently, as well as a few other positive, he still has to massively and consistently over-perform polling to win. In addition to polling challenges, his greatest issue going forward may be 90% of delegates will be assigned through a true-primary process. On the other hand, momentum seems to be in his favor at this point.